We remain cautiously optimistic in our positioning across all of Anson’s current portfolios for the rest of 2019, yet at the same time we also realize that the impressive year-to-date surges in major equity markets (many to new all-time highs) have taken place alongside numerous and persistent warning signs.
Global bond markets, commodities, interest rate futures, Eurodollar futures, and other forward-looking indicators all point to concerns on the horizon that we cannot simply ignore. Clearly, a number of serious issues are facing the world’s major economies and global markets. From past experience we know that any number of these issues could potentially turn out to be far more serious than they currently appear to be. While this list is not exhaustive, some of the issues that we believe are worth watching include:
- Inverted yield curves in numerous debt markets
- Ongoing trade wars among major global trading partners
- The unprecedented quantity of bonds bearing negative yields. Current estimates put the global amount at just under $14 trillion, up from almost zero negative yielding debt only few years ago
- Liquidity scares in high profile funds H20 and Woodford. These funds offered daily liquidity and yet held illiquid assets, thus creating an illusion of liquidity which did not actually exist
- The large quantity of BBB debt (most of which is from mainly five companies: ATT, Dell, Ford, GE, and GM)
- Corporate stock buybacks exceeding corporate capital expenditures, for the first time since 2008 (right before the GFC)
- US retail investors comprising about 60% of government debt holders (mainly via ETFs), an increase of about 2x in the last few years
- The performance of recent (and pending) IPOs of large and unprofitable companies: Lyft, Uber, WeWork, Beyond Meat
- Stresses in the global Eurodollar market
- Deutsche Bank slow-motion collapse
Obviously we do not know how (or when) these issues will be resolved. But given that so many of them are unprecedented, and given that the combination of such issues at any one time is particularly unusual, we believe that it is only prudent for us to remain cautious. We thus intend to continue to monitor these issues closely, remain vigilant, and maintain our short exposures as ongoing hedges against possible market corrections.